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  From Kyoto to CopenhagenClimate Awareness Year 2008 was marked by the intensification of negotiations for a new international climate agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012. With a view towards the Copenhagen Summit in December 2009, negotiations began in Bali in December 2007. Using the Bali Action Plan as the internationally accepted roadmap for further negotiations, deliberations subsequently took place in Bangkok, Bonn and Accra during the year. In December 2008–halfway to Copenhagen–delegates from 190 countries convened in Poznan, Poland hoping to take the next important step. In 2008, a series of new research results were presented that suggest that climate change is progressing even faster than indicated in the four IPCC reports of 2007 that contributed to the UN climate panel’s Nobel Peace Prize. Both the UN Climate Secretariat and the International Energy Agency, IEA, reported that emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase at an alarming rate. Then in the autumn, a global financial crisis began, which threatens to lead to a prolonged and deep economic downturn. Against this background, world leaders must agree on a new global climate accord. If the new agreement is to replace the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012, accords will have to be reached in Copenhagen in December 2009. It is clear that the new treaty must incorporate more far-reaching commitments than the Kyoto Protocol, and that all the world’s major emitters need to be party to the accords. Kyoto ProtocolBy signing the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, industrialized countries agreed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by about five percent, on average for the years 2008–2012 as compared to 1990. The countries covered by the Kyoto Protocol have made different commitments to limit their emissions. Canada and Japan, for example, are committed to reducing their emissions by six percent, while Australia is allowed to increase emissions by eight percent. The US is the only industrialized country emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases that has remained outside the Kyoto Protocol. The EU made a collective commitment under the Protocol to reduce its emissions by eight percent. Through so-called “burden sharing,” member states have agreed on how much each EU member should contribute. Accordingly, Denmark and Germany are expected to reduce their emissions by 21 percent, while Sweden is being allowed a four percent increase. Sweden has nevertheless adopted a national target to reduce emissions instead by four percent. The UK has also promised to reduce emissions more than required, by 21 percent instead of the mandated 12.5 percent. In November 2008, the UN Climate Secretariat presented emission data for 2006 showing that total emissions from the Kyoto countries was about 17 percent lower than 1990. Since 2000, however, emissions have been increasing, with a substantial spread between signatory countries. Fewer than half of the countries – among them Sweden – are on track to meet their objectives. The greatest challenge facing climate treaty negotiators is the issue of how to allocate emission reductions between different nations. To be successful, any agreement will have to be acceptable to both the US and recently industrialized developing countries, while reducing emissions significantly at the same time. Great hopes are being placed on the new US President, Barack Obama, who has stated that the US will once again help to lead the world towards a “new era of global cooperation on climate change.” Under the Bali Action Plan, developed countries will reduce emissions while developing countries will be expected to reduce their emissions within the framework of sustainable development. Developed countries are expected to support developing countries in their efforts. Thus wealthy nations—which have been responsible for the greatest amount of emissions thus far—will help poor countries— who are the ones who will suffer most from climate change—to adapt to these changes. Measures to curb deforestation, a crucial climate change issue for many tropical countries, should be given higher priority, if such measures can only be formalized in forthcoming climate accords. Another key issue to be discussed is how wealthy countries should support the poor with the transfer of new technology and how this should be financed. In 2008, vigorous preliminary negotiations were carried out at meetings in Bangkok (in April), Bonn (in June), and Accra (in August). The 2008 negotiations were concluded at the summit in Poznan, Poland. Many felt that the meeting was a disappointment, while others argued that the foundation had been built upon which a new agreement could be reached in Copenhagen. Among other things, concrete achievements of the year’s negotiations included clarification of how the poorest developing countries will be given the means to adapt to climate change, and commitments to support a strategic program for technology transfer. Negotiations will continue at an accelerating pace in 2009. In the second half of the year, Sweden’s role, as it assumes the Presidency of the EU, will become particularly important. EU Energy and Climate PackageIn December 2008, the EU agreed on an energy and climate package, which means inter alia that the EU will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20 percent by 2020 compared to 1990. If an international agreement is reached in the interim, the goal will increase to 30 percent. The reduction will be achieved partly within the EU emissions trading scheme, and partly by steps taken in other sectors. The trading scheme will be extended and the number of allowances will be reduced gradually so that the emissions covered by the system decreases by 21 percent compared to the levels of 2005. In the sectors not covered by the trading scheme, emissions will decrease on average by ten percent compared to 2005. Under the proposed burden sharing agreement between the EU countries, Sweden must reduce its emissions by 17 percent. In autumn negotiations, Sweden won acceptance for its proposal that a greater share of emissions reductions could be credited from projects in other countries (CDM and JI). In addition to the share of three percent originally proposed by the European Commission, countries with high marginal costs will be provided with the opportunity to make further investments |
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